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宏观】Q2中国金融周期继续回落

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月22日 11:19:05
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(原)(标)(题)(:【中)(信)(建)(投)(宏)(观)(】Q2中)(国)(金)(融)(周)(期)(继)(续)(回)(落)(
摘)(要)(
我)(们)(对)(中)(国)(金)(融)(周)(期)(的)(监)(测)(显)(示)(,2018Q2中)(国)(金)(融)(短)(周)(期)(的)(波)(动)(平)(稳)(回)(落)(,金)(融)(长)(周)(期)(延)(续)(下)(行)(趋)(势)(,中)(国)(金)(融)(周)(期)(“长)(周)(期)(过)(顶)(、短)(周)(期)(回)(落)(”的)(态)(势)(持)(续)(。从)(金)(融)(周)(期)(和)(宏)(观)(杠)(杆)(的)(关)(系)(来)(看)(,Q2居)(民)(部)(门)(杠)(杆)(率)(增)(幅)(收)(窄)(,企)(业)(部)(门)(、金)(融)(部)(门)(杠)(杆)(率)(下)(降)(,同)(金)(融)(周)(期)(的)(变)(动)(方)(向)(一)(致)(。2018年)(下)(半)(年)(,结)(构)(性)(调)(控)(发)(力)(叠)(加)(监)(管)(政)(策)(的)(边)(际)(放)(松)(,有)(望)(在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(缓)(解)(信)(用)(收)(缩)(,促)(使)(社)(融)(增)(速)(回)(稳)(。但)(根)(据)(我)(们)(的)(测)(算)((上)(一)(期)(周)(报)(),即)(使)(H2信)(贷)(和)(债)(券)(融)(资)(发)(力)(、影)(子)(银)(行)(信)(用)(收)(缩)(减)(慢)(,2018年)(全)(年)(社)(融)(增)(速)(可)(能)(在)(9.6%左)(右)(的)(水)(平)(。社)(融)(接)(近)(10%的)(增)(速)(仍)(处)(于)(历)(史)(低)(位)(,尚)(不)(足)(以)(支)(撑)(信)(用)(周)(期)(充)(分)(扩)(张)(。房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(政)(策)(也)(并)(未)(放)(松)(,因)(此)(新)(一)(轮)(全)(国)(房)(价)(水)(平)(加)(速)(上)(涨)(的)(周)(期)(可)(能)(还)(有)(待)(时)(日)(。综)(上)(我)(们)(认)(为)(,下)(半)(年)(中)(国)(金)(融)(周)(期)(重)(新)(扩)(张)(的)(拐)(点)(可)(能)(不)(会)(出)(现)(。
从)(高)(频)(监)(测)(数)(据)(看)(,生)(产)(继)(续)(回)(落)(,汽)(车)(地)(产)(销)(售)(分)(化)(。生)(产)(方)(面)(,发)(电)(耗)(煤)(增)(速)(回)(落)(,高)(炉)(开)(工)(率)(、尿)(素)(企)(业)(开)(工)(率)(、浮)(法)(玻)(璃)(产)(能)(利)(用)(率)(回)(落)(。价)(格)(方)(面)(,上)(游)(原)(油)(价)(格)(回)(升)(、煤)(炭)(价)(格)(回)(落)(、铁)(矿)(石)(价)(格)(回)(升)(,中)(游)(钢)(铁)(价)(格)(、水)(泥)(价)(格)(回)(升)(,有)(色)(金)(属)(价)(格)(分)(化)(,玻)(璃)(价)(格)(回)(落)(。库)(存)(方)(面)(,上)(游)(原)(油)(库)(存)(回)(落)(,煤)(炭)(库)(存)(分)(化)(,铁)(矿)(石)(库)(存)(回)(落)(,中)(游)(钢)(铁)(库)(存)(回)(落)(、有)(色)(库)(存)(以)(回)(落)(为)(主)(。需)(求)(方)(面)(,汽)(车)(零)(售)(回)(落)(,商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(增)(速)(继)(续)(回)(升)(。
流)(动)(性)(方)(面)(,本)(周)(央)(行)(资)(金)(净)(回)(笼)(,市)(场)(资)(金)(利)(率)(整)(体)(回)(落)(;十)(年)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(回)(落)(,人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(贬)(值)(;8月)(3日)(当)(周)(逆)(回)(购)(到)(期)(量)(为)(2100亿)(,MLF到)(期)(0亿)(。
重)(要)(新)(闻)(梳)(理)(:1-6月)(份)(规)(模)(以)(上)(工)(业)(企)(业)(利)(润)(同)(比)(增)(长)(17.2%,较)(1-5月)(回)(升)(0.7个)(百)(分)(点)(。其)(中)(,6月)(份)(利)(润)(同)(比)(增)(20.0%,比)(5月)(份)(回)(落)(1.1个)(百)(分)(点)(。总)(体)(看)(,企)(业)(利)(润)(增)(速)(上)(行)(主)(因)(价)(格)(与)(主)(营)(业)(务)(利)(润)(率)(提)(高)(。国)(企)(、私)(企)(利)(润)(增)(速)(一)(升)(一)(降)(,这)(或)(许)(表)(明)(,在)(各)(行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(上)(升)(的)(过)(程)(中)(,民)(企)(分)(享)(到)(的)(利)(润)(份)(额)(相)(对)(较)(少)(,或)(对)(民)(间)(投)(资)(产)(生)(不)(利)(影)(响)(。在)(国)(务)(院)(新)(闻)(办)(公)(室)(26日)(举)(行)(的)(新)(闻)(发)(布)(会)(上)(,财)(政)(部)(副)(部)(长)(刘)(伟)(表)(示)(,下)(一)(步)(,财)(政)(部)(将)(坚)(持)(稳)(中)(求)(进)(工)(作)(总)(基)(调)(,坚)(持)(不)(搞)(“大)(水)(漫)(灌)(”式)(强)(刺)(激)(,聚)(焦)(减)(税)(降)(费)(,以)(支)(持)(中)(小)(企)(业)(发)(展)(、促)(进)(创)(业)(创)(新)(、稳)(定)(就)(业)(为)(重)(点)(,精)(准)(施)(策)(,提)(升)(效)(能)(,加)(强)(部)(门)(协)(作)(,强)(化)(政)(策)(协)(同)(,更)(好)(地)(支)(持)(实)(体)(经)(济)(发)(展)(。
正)(文)(
一)(
Q2中)(国)(金)(融)(周)(期)(继)(续)(回)(落)(
我)(们)(对)(中)(国)(金)(融)(周)(期)(的)(监)(测)(显)(示)(,2018Q2中)(国)(金)(融)(短)(周)(期)(的)(波)(动)(平)(稳)(回)(落)(,金)(融)(长)(周)(期)(延)(续)(下)(行)(趋)(势)(,中)(国)(金)(融)(周)(期)(“长)(周)(期)(过)(顶)(、短)(周)(期)(回)(落)(”的)(态)(势)(持)(续)(。2018年)(上)(半)(年)(,“去)(杠)(杆)(+强)(监)(管)(”政)(策)(压)(力)(导)(致)(影)(子)(银)(行)(信)(用)(收)(缩)(,进)(而)(拉)(低)(社)(融)(增)(速)(,对)(应)(广)(义)(信)(贷)(中)(的)(“股)(权)(及)(其)(他)(投)(资)(”降)(幅)(扩)(大)(。资)(产)(端)(广)(义)(信)(贷)(的)(回)(落)(使)(得)(负)(债)(端)(广)(义)(货)(币)(增)(速)(走)(低)(,进)(而)(导)(致)(Q2货)(币)(化)(率)(同)(比)(回)(落)(2个)(百)(分)(点)(。货)(币)(化)(率)(的)(连)(续)(回)(落)(对)(房)(价)(水)(平)(的)(增)(速)(产)(生)(负)(面)(影)(响)(,叠)(加)(广)(义)(信)(贷)(增)(速)(回)(落)(,共)(同)(驱)(使)(Q2金)(融)(周)(期)(继)(续)(回)(落)(。从)(金)(融)(周)(期)(和)(宏)(观)(杠)(杆)(的)(关)(系)(来)(看)(,Q2居)(民)(部)(门)(杠)(杆)(率)(增)(幅)(收)(窄)(,企)(业)(部)(门)(、金)(融)(部)(门)(杠)(杆)(率)(下)(降)(,同)(金)(融)(周)(期)(的)(变)(动)(方)(向)(一)(致)(。
2018年)(下)(半)(年)(,结)(构)(性)(调)(控)(发)(力)(叠)(加)(监)(管)(政)(策)(的)(边)(际)(放)(松)(,有)(望)(在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(缓)(解)(信)(用)(收)(缩)(,促)(使)(社)(融)(增)(速)(回)(稳)(。但)(根)(据)(我)(们)(的)(测)(算)((上)(一)(期)(周)(报)(),即)(使)(H2信)(贷)(和)(债)(券)(融)(资)(发)(力)(、影)(子)(银)(行)(信)(用)(收)(缩)(减)(慢)(,2018年)(全)(年)(社)(融)(增)(速)(可)(能)(在)(9.6%左)(右)(的)(水)(平)(。社)(融)(接)(近)(10%的)(增)(速)(仍)(处)(于)(历)(史)(低)(位)(,尚)(不)(足)(以)(支)(撑)(信)(用)(周)(期)(充)(分)(扩)(张)(。房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(政)(策)(也)(并)(未)(放)(松)(,因)(此)(新)(一)(轮)(全)(国)(房)(价)(水)(平)(加)(速)(上)(涨)(的)(周)(期)(可)(能)(还)(有)(待)(时)(日)(。综)(上)(我)(们)(认)(为)(,下)(半)(年)(中)(国)(金)(融)(周)(期)(重)(新)(扩)(张)(的)(拐)(点)(可)(能)(不)(会)(出)(现)(。
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